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March 20th Update

CST admits our plan was doomed to failure – but we were not given the right information and this has had other effects:-

CST’s original musing were correct, the UK government was withholding important information - false news by any other name.

If we had been informed of the crucial information about who was critically affected by this disease.  People, most of them, would have realised much earlier that we ere facing a massive threat, not just for the elderly or infirmed, but all people over 20 years old.

The government withheld this from us.  This is very, very stupid and will be seen as causing a significantly more damaging outcome than if the cabinet office had been open.

While we must not panic people unnecessarily, to keep people informed is paramount.  We are not stupid.

Furthermore, given the known severity of this disease for most ages, the government response has been pathetic.

Here are the issues:

Now we see what happens when the virus overwhelms the hospital, over 600 deaths in one day in Italy.  London may well follow that course.

The US is in even a worse place.  Trump’s stupidity (we could use another expression) will kill many thousand unnecessarily.  The US is just about (20 March) to hit the panic button, their lack of health care for many will be disastrous for many. 

When the US finally work out that this ‘recession’ will go on for at least a year – effectively until we get a vaccine and role it out – the markets will implode, expect Wall Street to hit 1500 or worse as there will be no dividends for years in most sectors.

So, what happens after the first phase?

We have seen China move into the next phase already.  Our government suggests we seesaw from crisis to crisis until eventually they go away and most people acquire immunity.  The economic impact of this is uncertain.   Open a restaurant or pub or venue for a few weeks, then shut them down again. What does this do to the longer term economy?

Paying salaries to 80% for many people is a massive drain on the future – many hundred of £billions.  Will this lead to a re-invention of economics?

CST has long argued that as we move to a robotic workforce, the economic thinking and theories will have to adjust.  When finally (timescale?) the robots do nearly everything, then money and debt as we know it becomes obsolete.

Perhaps, by the time we come clearly out the other side of this world epidemic, we may be able to see the future more clearly – and if we are lucky the economists will see that we can coast to the end game of robotic service, food and manufacturing society without having to attempt to ‘pay for the impossible virus debt’.  Do we tread water for 25 years to pay off the debt – only to discover we never needed to?

If not, then how will the world manage the awful virus debt?  How many years will it take to move back to a ‘normal’ economy?  Will the dollar fail, if so the world that counts in dollars fails too.  Physically, the world will have changed little.  The likely deaths will be small compared to major wars or other historic pandemics such as the plague or the 1918 Spanish flu.

So, what will hamper the human race from moving forward will be the way we think about possibilities.  The manufacturing, communication, energy systems and food manufacturing will still be there as before.  But if we let the economics of our money based systems dictate to us – then we could see breakdown of many societies and even major wars.

CST

The UK Plan 15 March 2020:

The under 55’s should be asked to go about life as normal.

The over 55’s should be mandated to stay at home until further notice.  (There will be some key exclusions, see analysis below).

Over 55’s who live with other people should try to isolate within their home as far as possible.

Over 55’s who can work from home should do so with employers being mandated to ensure that this is at all possible.  Employers should be mandated to provide a reason if this is not possible.

People under 55 who feel they are at significant heightened risk due to health issues can self-select to stay at home, and register with 111 help line to allocate resources should they require them.

Ask the under 55’s to go about their normal business and urge them to continue to visit pubs, restaurants, normal gatherings, sport venues, and mix with work colleagues completely normally.

This includes keeping open schools and education establishments.

Provide an immediate tax incentives (increase the basic tax allowance by £1000 this year, providing £200 for everyone in work, this works well now as it is just before year end).
Ask the under 55’s to go out and spend this on the service sector to keep these economies going.

Put the army on alert to help provision the stay at homes as required.   

After the spread of the virus has stabilised for the under 55’s, release the 55’s to 60’s age group back into the community, ask them to spend their tax incentive on services.

When this group has stabilised, then release the up to 60’s... then later the 70s and so on.  In this release process the impact on the NHS can be monitored closely to prevent overloading especially within ICU units.

This works for both the economy and the wider community.  It provides the herd immunity but built up in a very controlled manner.  It also crucially provides the space and equipment in ICU for those who need it.

Analysis:

This plan has few down-sides.  It saves the wider service economy from melt down such as is happening in France, Italy, Spain and soon no doubt, many other countries.

Crucially, it guarantees that the UK shall not need to shut down our service sectors and reduces the impact across many other sectors.  Once our service industries are shut down the time-scale and cost are unknown.

Their will be some significant workplace and education disruption from missing employees both from the under 55’s when they fall ill and the missing employees over 55.   Schools, colleges and similar institutions shall need to reallocate class sizes and restructure their care provision.  This shall provide a better outcome than having to close such institutions leading to less people being available for work and infecting the older people who are likely to be looking after the children not able to go to school.

Some over 55’s in key jobs such as consultants in ICU and the health service generally may apply for release from isolation.  This can be handled by their employer if the employer insists that they are a key personnel and needed for public safety.

For the health management, the staging of the older population in manageable groups is paramount.  It means that as we move forward and understand more, we become more prepared and more able to deal with this illness.

There will still be a number of older people who cannot completely self-isolate who will become ill soon.  As the number of fit under 55’s who need ICU equipment should be small, these older people will be able to be dealt with.

The costs of such implementation is a fraction of the ongoing cost to repair our service based economy.  If we are forced to shut them down as the ICU places become overwhelmed, it will take many £billions to re-build them.  This plan is by far the cheapest possible solution for the UK in the medium and longer term.

The UK has a very narrow window of opportunity to introduce this plan.  It must be implemented before the level of infection overwhelms the NHS. This plan helps us all and ensures resilience of our ongoing economy especially for small businesses who will go bust if we follow the other European shutdowns.

If we in the UK action this plan, we shall emerge as the leading world economy, we shall have maintained a strong service economy and shall be able to re-build our other industries such as aerospace, aviation and manufacturing more quickly. 

Considering the likely world recession that will follow this outbreak, the ability of the UK to create jobs for infrastructure and forward looking innovation will be unique.  The rest of the world shall be using all their resources in survival mode.

Lastly it is a very specific thought-through plan that can be put forward as the world leading plan to solve this crisis.

It will get the backing from the people - as it both protects their health and relieves the stress from jobs losses now and into the future.

This plan has been emailed to every government minister and most MP's on 15 March 2020. So, in future if they have not taken sensible actions to prevent chronic breakdown and many unnecessary deaths, the cannot say they were not given a better way forward.

Will the government carry out such radical measures? Probably not until it is too late. If they do not, expect potential mass disruption, because families who have little savings and have lost jobs will after some months, need to take matters into their own hands for their families survival.

 

Previously 12 March 2020

Well, CST doesn't mind saying we were exactly on the money yet again... now what is the sensible strategy?

What is clear to CST, is that we do not yet know how this virus will pan out in the UK.  We do not know with any real clarity who is most at risk and what the death rates are or what the rates are for becoming seriously or critically ill.  What we do know is that this virus being new to us all, and having a high transmission rate is likely to affect us all.

So, CST has given some thought to what is the best course of action now.

In about a months time (or sooner), we shall be much better informed specifically for the above issues within the UK.

So we suggest if you can, you isolate for one month, or until you know enough to make a decision on future plans.  Hopefully, by then, we shall all know what we really face and can take further appropriate action.

Also, due to Trump's lack of strategic ability, (he is by nature a reactionist), he is likely to continue to make poor decisions, CST expects the US markets to continue to fall, expect Wall Street to hit 1800?

Initial Summary

17 Jan 2020:-

There may be a few individuals that were alive in the last major pandemic in 1918 Wiki:

”Known as Spanish flu, it was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic, the first of the two pandemics involving H1N1 influenza virus. It infected 500 million people around the world, including people on remote Pacific islands and in the Arctic.”

The rest of us have never faced a threat such as this before.  CST is not alarmist, this pandemic may just be a nuisance for many, but currently the interesting bit is that we have no idea.

What CST is pretty sure of is we are being subjected to global disinformation about this situation.  The UK, European, US authorities seem to have agreed on a plan, if we were able to listen in on their conversations, it would probably go like this:

“We now face a global pandemic.  It is clear that this new virus will spread across most of the world’s population.  Containment for most countries is now not a realistic option as the virus has an unknown period of infection before any symptoms become obvious and it is likely to have already spread across borders.   The likely infection rate in China (200,000 expected within the next week in Wuhan), suggests that the virus is pretty good at spreading person to person, although we do not know what the infection process is yet.

The issue now is how we deal with the many people who are likely to fall ill.  As the virus is ‘new’ to all humans (and is likely derived from an animal source and mutated to infect humans), there is likely to be little if any immunity within world populations. “

What we do NOT know at present is :

What we do know:

This is what CNN said about symptoms:

“This is what we know about the illness so far:

Coronavirus is a large family of viruses, which include severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS).

Common symptoms include: a runny nose, cough, sore throat, and possibly a headache. Those who have a weakened immune system, particularly the young and the elderly, are at risk of the virus turning into a more serious respiratory tract illness.

Authorities said the Wuhan coronavirus was passed from animals to humans; can be spread from person to person; and appears to cause pneumonia in people who have weakened immune systems.

It is thought to be milder that SARS and MERS and take longer to develop symptoms. Patients to date have typically experienced a mild cough for a week followed by shortness of breath, causing them to visit a hospital.”

So what should the general public do?   This is tricky as it is likely to differ depending upon your circumstances.  If you are old gits like us and retired, when the virus looks likely to be out and about you can stay in and play with the internet (good time to try out the moocs).

What should we do?

This is tricky as it is likely to differ depending upon your circumstances.  If you are old gits like us and retired, when the virus looks likely to be out and about you can stay in and play with the internet (good time to try out the moocs).

If you work, then it will probably be too late once you decide not to mix with colleagues.  For the younger people, depending on the viruses effect on this age group, if known early, you could stay in, keeping younger children away from school and friends before the virus becomes rampant, or go with the flow if the illness is not causing severe symptoms.

Whatever happens, it is nice to know we are the guinea-pigs in a new global experiment.

CST

 

 

Coronavirus –The PLAN that saves both the economy and unnecessary deaths

15 March 2020

We have now put the definitive, workable plan to the UK government. This plan saves the economy, peoples jobs and finances and of course alleviates the unnecessary deaths from the lack of equipment and beds within ICU departments within the NHS.

This plan has been emailed to most MP's and all government ministers.

The Government now needs to consider the plan and put forward either an alternative or explain how their current plans actually save more lives and deliver better outcomes for the economy as a whole... their current plan does not.